The forward-looking information is based on a three-year
forecast period converging to steady state in year seven.
The base case is an extension of the Group’s official view
of the Nordic economies (the Nordic Outlook report from
October 2021) and reflects an expectation of further
recovery of the Nordic economies over the coming two
years, although lack of labour, materials and equipment
is becoming a break on growth.
that are possible within the next 12 months (stage 1). If
the credit risk has increased significantly, the loan is
more than 30 days past due, or the loan is in default or
otherwise impaired, the impairment charge equals the
lifetime expected credit losses (stages 2 and 3). The
allowance account is relatively stable in terms of
changes to the definition of significant increase in credit
risk. Non-performing loans are sold back to Danske Bank
A/S, Finland Branch.
In the upside scenario, consumers run down a large pro-
portion of the substantial savings accumulated during
the pandemic. There is a consumer-led global recovery,
and in this scenario there is slightly more support for
the housing market. GDP is about 1 per cent higher by
the end of this scenario compared to the base case. The
Group’s downside scenario is a severe recession sce-
nario, calibrated to a level of severity resembling the
recession in 2008-2009. A trigger of the economic set-
back could be another wave of coronavirus causing a
new round of countrywide lockdowns or just very cau-
tious consumers, an escalating confidence crisis in
Europe and some degree of financial crisis. Slowing pri-
vate consumption will shock the economy and plunging
global demand will hit European exports. This will lead to
a severe slowdown in the economies in which the Group
is represented.
The expected credit loss is calculated for all individual
facilities as a function of probability of default (PD), expo-
sure at default (EAD) and loss given default (LGD) and it
incorporates forward-looking information. The estima-
tion of expected credit losses involves forecasting future
economic conditions over a number of years. Such fore-
casts are subject to management judgement and those
judgements may be sources of measurement uncer-
tainty that have a significant risk of resulting in a mate-
rial adjustment to a carrying amount in future periods.
The incorporation of forward-looking elements reflects
the expectations of the Group’s senior management and
involves the creation of scenarios (base case, upside and
downside), including an assessment of the probability for
each scenario. The purpose of using multiple scenarios
is to model the non-linear impact of assumptions about
macroeconomic factors on the expected credit losses.
The scenarios used are described more closely in the
following section.
The applied scenarios in 2021 differ from those used at
31 December 2020. In Q1 2021 the downside scenario
was changed to the severe recession scenario applied in
the Bank’s ICLAAP processes and is similar in nature to
regulatory stress tests. The severe recession scenario
reflected negative growth and falling property prices for
a longer period. The change of the downside scenario
was made to capture the risk of prolonged lockdowns
due to new coronavirus variants, and in order for the
ECL calculation to include potential downside risks due
to the elevated asset prices. The scenario weightings
were also changed, and kept stable for the first nine
months of 2021. However, in Q4 2021 the scenarios
weightings have been updated to the current weights.
Accounting treatment of the impacts from the
COVID-19 pandemic
The effect of the coronavirus pandemic began to affect
the Bank’s credit portfolio in the first quarter of 2020.
The year 2021 marked the second year of the coronavi-
rus pandemic, and affected the expected credit loss dif-
ferently compared to the year 2020. The year 2021 has
seen overall good customer activity in the Group’s core
markets and reversals from modelled ratings. With the
ongoing detection of new variants of the coronavirus and
lockdowns imposed and lifted repeatedly throughout
2021, the uncertainty remains high in relation to credit
deterioration across most industries.
With the changed downside scenario the scenario
weighting was also changed and afterwards kept stable
for the first nine months of 2021. In Q4 2021, the sce-
narios weights have been updated to the current weights
of base case 70%, downside 20% and 10% upside.
The Bank has implemented the European Banking
Authority’s (the EBA’s) definition of loans subject to for-
bearance measures, which states that a probation
period of a minimum of two years must pass from the
date when forborne exposures are considered to be per-
forming again. Group has taken proactive forborne
measures to improve the financial position of weak cus-
tomers following the corona crisis.
Based on these assessments, the allowance account at
31 December 2021 amounted to EUR 2.0 million (31
December 2020 EUR 2.2 million). Loans accounted at
DANSKE MORTGAGE BANK PLC IFRS FINANCIAL STATEMENTS 2021
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