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2024
Greenland’s Society and Economy
Greenland’s economy has remained relatively strong in the face
of several years marked by global uncertainty, international
tensions and economic crises. Compared with recent years’
international economic downturn – including high inflation,
rising interest rates and declining purchasing power –
Greenland's economy has been remarkably robust, despite
some negative impacts. Structural challenges give rise to some
uncertainty of development in the coming years, when both
international and local conditions will play a decisive role.
One key reason for Greenland's economic growth is the major
capital investments, which are expected to have peaked in
2024. These building and construction activities are very
important for overall economic activity, since they primarily rely
on production in Greenland and only require imports on a
smaller scale. It is important to note, however, that the
manpower required for these projects is predominantly
brought in from abroad for these particular assignments. The
enormous investments in modernisation of Greenland's
infrastructure, including new airports, incineration plants and
energy supply facilities, therefore have a great impact on
economic growth. It is nonetheless vital that this economic
activity is accompanied by a strong focus on ensuring a good
balance with other economic conditions. Fiscal policy that can
be described as expansionary, among other things due to these
major investments, can impose increasing pressure on the
labour market, higher pay levels and thereby diminished
competitiveness. When economic growth is financed by greater
indebtedness, this exacerbates vulnerability to unexpected
economic setbacks.
Even though the macroeconomic indicators have been generally
positive and Greenland’s activity level is generally high, significant
challenges lie ahead. These challenges pose a threat to long-
term economic stability. The population is ageing and there are
ever-increasing expectations of public benefits. There is close to
full employment – particularly among groups with professional
skills – which emphasises the lack of trained manpower in
several areas where demand is high. Ensuring structural
economic sustainability requires ongoing reforms and targeted
initiatives, including strengthening the level of educational
attainment, matched more closely to society’s needs.
With Sustainability and Growth Plan II as a structural economic
guiding principle, Greenland's Finance Act is aimed to set the
course for long-term economic sustainability, reduce business
vulnerability and pave the way for sustainable and socially
equitable growth. One means to achieve this is by raising levels
of education and professional skills, as well as economic
diversification and reform of the tax, duty and pension systems.
The annual report reviews these topics under four overall
themes. The first theme concerns the general course of the
economy, while the second theme focuses on the dynamics
and growth potentials of the business community. The third
theme is an in-depth review of the structural challenges
currently faced by Greenland. The fourth and final theme
focuses on how it is important for Greenland to be open
towards external investments and capital, as they will be vital
for the country’s continued development.
The escalated international focus on Greenland, culminating at
the start of 2025, affects the media, population, politicians and
everyday life in Greenland. In view of the rhetoric from the
parties involved, the potential political and economic impacts
are very extensive and uncertain. For the time being, however,
no circumstances have any real impact on Greenland's
economy, households and businesses on a scale that makes it
possible to assess any real economic effect, or impact on
particular segments of society. This analysis of the economic
conditions therefore does not take account of these potential
outcomes, since at the time of writing this would be based on
excessive speculation and theoretical considerations.
Overall economic development
Economic growth
Despite global challenges and crises, Greenland's economy has
shown its strength in the past years. As Figure 1 shows,
according to provisional data, GDP grew by 1.8% in 2023.
More subdued economic growth is expected in 2024, however,
with a forecast 0.9% increase, and 1.1% in 2025.
Economic activity in Greenland is primarily driven by major
capital investments, in particular the three new airports in
Nuuk, Ilulissat and Qaqortoq. Nuuk’s international airport
opened in November 2024, and has accounted for a substantial
share of capital investments in recent years. The airports in
Ilulissat and Qaqortoq will be completed in the following years
– after which there are plans to commence the expansion of
the Buksefjord hydroelectric power plant. Even though the
building and construction activities have peaked so far, the
general perception in the locally based element of the
construction industry is that order books are thinning out. If the
sector undergoes a critical decline in activity, one possible
strategy might be to intensify the renovation of the existing
building stock. Reducing the maintenance backlog for rental
homes, ports and energy installations would not only support
local activity in the sector, but also reduce the implicit debt.
However, this should be planned with due consideration of the
risk of overheating the economy, and its significance to the
overall indebtedness.