
2025
population of working age will augment the pressure on public
finances and on key welfare areas. Without reforms, expendi-
ture will continue to outpace revenue, which undermines eco-
nomic robustness and limits opportunities for economic policy
measures. This has been a known problem for many years, and
in recent years was one of the key focal points of successive Fi-
nance Acts. The need for resolute action is now a real impera-
tive – including in the short term. It is therefore positive that
reform of the public sector is a key element of the Finance Act,
including plans to appoint an independent reform commission,
and for cooperation with experts and the establishment of a
permanent reform body. This includes the expert group ap-
pointed to present proposals for an overall pension reform.
There are also limited opportunities to increase public revenue
by increasing employment. Unemployment is still very low for
those with vocational and higher educational qualifications, and
large elements of the employment growth have been driven by
foreign manpower. The labour market is thereby subject to sig-
nificant pressure on its capacity. Employment has, however, in-
creased for people with only lower secondary qualifications,
among other things due to the introduction of the job seeker's
allowance, which has increased the financial incentive to register
as looking for work. In the short term, this can entail bottle-
necks in some parts of the economy, while in the longer term it
emphasises the need for more people to gain educational quali-
fications and to increase the labour supply, to ensure a more
sustainable basis for growth.
Public revenue can also be increased by foreign investment,
such as in mining operations. Investments of this type often en-
counter resistance, such as concern as to whether the profits
will fall to Greenland to a sufficient extent. As described by
Greenland's Economic Council in its interim report, appropriate
regulation of the projects can be of significant benefit to society.
Besides employment and activity in local secondary industries, a
direct economic return in the form of the resource rent can be
achieved, without the public sector taking on a substantial in-
vestment risk. It is positive that the Sustainability and Growth
Plan makes foreign capital a condition for a broader business
structure, and, not least, that there will be a focus on creating
the right framework conditions, for the benefit of both inves-
tors and the Greenlandic society. These framework conditions
can contribute to reducing the risk for investors, if Greenland is
seen as transparent and reliable, and can also increase support
from the population in general.
Debt accumulation
As a consequence of the declining public revenue and increas-
ing spending pressure, particularly in the healthcare area, the OI
balance has worsened considerably since the last Finance Act
(see Table 1). The 2026 Finance Act budgets for an overall
four-year surplus of DKK 60.2 million, which can only be
achieved based on the expectation of a substantial surplus in
2029. Just one year ago, the expected four-year surplus was al-
most DKK 600 million from 2025 to 2028.
One consequence is that during 2025 the Treasury's liquidity
was weakened significantly. At the end of 2024, liquidity was al-
most DKK 700 million, while in the 2026 Finance Act it is re-
duced to around DKK 350 million. This corresponds to a re-
serve of around 4% of the Greenland government's operating
expenditure.
The high utilisation of the Budget Act's four-year framework,
combined with a low liquidity reserve, significantly curtails the
Greenland government's opportunities to manage future cycli-
cal fluctuations. Greenland's economy is still strongly dependent
on fisheries, and fluctuations in catch volumes and prices quickly
affect growth, revenue and liquidity. This makes the economy
particularly vulnerable to negative shocks and amplifies the need
for a broader business structure.
This development is in strong contrast to the preceding years,
when public finances were characterised by extraordinarily high
revenue and lower expenditure than expected. During this pe-
riod, no fiscal-policy buffer was built up, however. Instead, the
expenditure level was raised, which means that savings now
have to be made during a period with low economic growth.
Viewed from a fiscal-policy perspective this is inexpedient, since
it means that fiscal policy cannot be used as an instrument to
counter cyclical fluctuations, thereby emphasising the need for
more cyclically robust economic policy measures.
In overall terms, the Greenland government, the municipalities
and the government-owned limited liability companies had
gross interest-bearing debt of around DKK 8.6 billion in 2025,
equivalent to around 37% of GDP. This is almost DKK 1 billion
higher than two years ago, and the debt is expected to increase
by a further DKK 2.5 billion up to 2028, of which by far the
largest share is tied to the government-owned limited liability
companies. This will entail that, by then, the gross debt will
amount to around 50% of GDP.
There is furthermore still a considerable maintenance deficit for
ports, energy facilities and rental accommodation, which should
be regarded as implicit debt. This liability is not included in the
official debt figures, but eliminating this debt will require either
increased borrowing or higher prices for consumers. The latter
can lead to inflationary pressure and mask the real debt accu-
mulation and the overall economic impact.