12
The Fund has added to performance by
averaging an underweight position in less
attractive sectors such as communication
services and consumer discretionary
relative to the benchmark. The utilities
sector has also been a positive contributor
to performance over 5 years, however,
this has been driven by selection effects
as the Fund’s exposure to the sector
has consistently been in-line with the
benchmark. AltaGas has been a notable
performer for the Fund, generating a
portfolio return of 118 per cent.
Recession risks have abated in recent
months, largely due to the resilience of
consumer spending and tight conditions
in the labour market. The global economy’s
current trajectory is for a soft-landing
and slowing but positive growth. The U.S.
economy remains on solid-footing and
may ultimately experience a “no-landing”
scenario. This bodes well for the portfolio’s
exposure to Canadian cyclicals such as
energy and financials. The U.S. represents
over 75% of Canadian exports and is
an extremely important end-market for
these sectors. The Canadian dollar is also
expected to benefit from strong demand
for Canadian exports which would be a
tailwind for MCT’s U.K. investors.
Our base assumption regarding inflation
is that it will continue trending lower
throughout the year. This is supported
by inflation expectations from consumers
and businesses, a historically reliable
indicator of future inflation, coming down
in recent months. That said, geopolitical
tensions have been mounting since war
broke out in the Middle East and elevates
the risk of inflation caused by supply chain
disruptions and higher commodity prices.
Canada is uniquely insulated from these
risks given its proximity and longstanding
relationship with the United States. While it
is certainly our hope that the conflict in the
Middle East is resolved soon, a drawn-out
war in the region will likely cause investors
to seek hedges against inflation. Canadian
equities offer a hedge against inflation
risk and could attract capital inflows if
geopolitical tensions worsen.
We remain constructive on the Canadian
real estate sector in 2024. For the past two
years, despite solid fundamentals in many
real estate sectors (i.e., vacancy rates
below 2% in industrial and multi-family and
significant re-leasing spreads in retail),
REIT stock prices have lagged.
Investor sentiment for the broader real
estate sector has been disaffected by
the rise in interest rates, high vacancies
in the office property sector as well as
high yields available in cash or near-cash
alternatives. With bond yields declining
and central bankers looking to cut rates
later this year, we believe certain REITs are
extremely well-positioned to outperform.
Despite consensus NAV estimates
having declined 10-15% over the past
year in response to higher interest rates,
Canadian REITs are trading at a further
20% discount. We expect quality REITs that
generate stable and growing cash flows
to narrow this discount throughout 2024.
The Fund’s active management strategy is
a key advantage in this sector. We favour
REITs in the industrial, retail, multi-family
and senior housing sub-industries.
As geopolitical tensions mount, energy
security has become a paramount issue
for many countries. Canada’s oil and
natural gas reserves rank in the top 5
globally, positioning it well relative to other
nations. Canada stands to benefit from
foreign countries demanding more energy
imports, driving consistent growth in the
Canadian energy sector for decades.
The next two years will mark a pivotal
change in Canadian energy’s access
to global markets. The Trans Mountain
pipeline project, which is expected to
come online in Q2 2024, will provide
western Canadian crude oil producers
with an additional 590,000 barrels per
day of crude oil transportation capacity
and tidewater access. In addition, LNG
Canada, the largest private infrastructure
project in Canada’s history, will become
operational in 2025. With an export
capacity of 1.8 Bcf/d, LNG Canada will
provide Canadian gas producers with a
material boost to production egress. These
large infrastructure projects are expected
to stimulate significant investments from
energy producers as well as midstream
companies that will need to add necessary
processing and handling capabilities.
Canada’s leadership in sustainability
further enhances the narrative. Members
of the Pathways Alliance are at the forefront
of net zero emissions initiatives through
carbon capture & storage. The Alliance
plans to invest $24.1 billion by 2030 with
anticipated co-funding from governments.
The Fund added to its financials exposure
in Q4, making it the largest sector weight
in the portfolio at the end of 2023. The
decision stemmed from our growing
confidence in the economic landscape
both in Canada and the U.S. Throughout
the year, Canadian banks faced several
challenges, including increased capital
requirements, double-digit expense growth
and a sluggish capital markets environment.
We believe these risks are starting to fade
considering banks have adjusted their
capital ratios to comply with regulatory
requirements. They have announced
significant cost-cutting initiatives, and
capital markets activity has started to re-
accelerate. Credit cycle concerns have
also been at the forefront, particularly in
the Canadian housing market. With bond
yields having fallen approximately 100
basis points from their October peak, and
recent policy changes from the provincial
and federal governments to boost housing
supply, we have become less concerned
by this risk but continue to monitor credit
quality closely. With forward P/E ratios for
Canada’s Big 6 banks averaging 9.9x,
below the 15-year average of 10.7x, we
believe the current risk/reward setup for the
group is attractive. Our highest weighted
names include Bank of Montreal, Royal
Bank of Canada, and TD Bank, all of which
have well-capitalised balance sheets and
adequately covered dividends.
The Canadian utilities sector experienced
a myriad of challenges in 2023 including
cost inflation, higher financing expenses,
project delays, cancellations and hedging
issues. Despite its traditionally defensive
characteristics, the sector was the third-
worst performer on the TSX last year with
a total return of just 0.2% (local currency).
Utilities stocks are currently cheap,
trading at a nearly two standard deviation
discounts to their 5-year average forward
P/E multiples. We expect the sector to re-
rate over time as interest rates decline and
we remain constructive on the sector. We
are encouraged by companies’ recent
commitments to project execution and
a renewed focus on capital allocation
efficiency. Over the long-term, we expect
heightened demand for electricity driven
by the proliferation of artificial intelligence
and decarbonization trends. Our preferred
picks in the sector include AltaGas, Capital
Power, and Emera.
Investment Manager’s
Report
continued